When: Saturday, May 21, 2016
Where: Megasport Arena, Moscow, Russia
TV: Showtime
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Titles: WBC Heavyweight Title
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Where: Megasport Arena, Moscow, Russia
TV: Showtime
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Titles: WBC Heavyweight Title
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Deontay WIlder, 36-0 (35 KOs), Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Vs.
Alexander Povetkin, 30-1 (22 KOs), Chekhov, Russia
Vs.
Alexander Povetkin, 30-1 (22 KOs), Chekhov, Russia
Betting Odds: Deontay Wilder -150, Alexander Povetkin +120
Deontay Wilder defends the WBC Heavyweight Title against top challenger Alexander Povetkin in Moscow on May 21. This will be Wilder's fourth title defense, but his first real test, with the well-traveled and once-beaten Povetkin still a major threat. Wilder should have his hands full in a foreign location against his toughest opponent to date. Will Wilder's extreme punching power prevail or will the better-rounded overall game of Povetkin rise to the surface? It should be an interesting bout.
Wilder has been active with three defenses since June of last year, though his opponents have not been met with much enthusiasm. In his last bout in January, he stopped Artur Szpilka in the ninth round. Povetkin fought twice in 2015, his last bout being a 12th-round TKO over Maruisz Wach. He had to really wait for this shot and is finally getting the mandatory challenge, as Wilder has exhausted all his voluntary defenses.
There's only so much bad you can say about a 36-0 (35) fighter with a title belt. Wilder has really stepped forward as a major player in this division—a potential mainstay in the post-Klitschko era and a threat to squash anyone he faces. To go from where he was not too long ago to this spot is a long walk and it took ability to get to this position. The downside is that he now finds himself in a position where he has to face really good fighters like Povetkin while still being what amounts to an inexperienced guy.
Wilder parlayed a brief amateur career into a bronze medal at the 2008 Olympics, before winning 36 straight as a pro. But his lack of a prolonged amateur career, the fact that he started the sport very late, and the lack of overall quality in his opposition leave him in an awkward position of being a champion who is still in the developmental stages.
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Luckily for Wilder, he has the great equalizer—punching power. That right hand can end fights suddenly and violently. When handicapping a Wilder fight, it's important to remember that no matter what deficiencies he may have, the fight can be brought to a quick end. But what happens in between those big right hands? That's the problem with a still-green Wilder at this level. He doesn't really work well in the ring on a second-to-second basis. He doesn't really know how to work a guy yet. His ring-work can be aimless and meandering at times. The jab, which should be a featured weapon, isn't a key part of his offense much of the time. The hook is negligible. The bodywork, which is available with fighters wary of the right hand up top, is not yet a big part of his arsenal.
This is why you have Wilder fighting on nearly even terms with good, but unexceptional heavyweights. Or at least until he drops the hammer. But now he has the most capable guy he has ever fought in Povetkin, who has always been durable. If Povetkin can eat some of Wilder's right hands, Wilder might be in for a long night. Based on what we've seen thus far, it's hard to imagine Wilder beating Povetkin without power being a huge part of the fight. If he doesn't land the right hand and hurt Povetkin, a route to victory is hard to envision.
This might sound like a condemnation on Wilder and it really isn't. The Tuscaloosa slugger has come a long way. He has a certain air about him that suggests a winning spirit. Wilder is able to remain loose and not let his emotions get him in trouble. And despite a whippet-like frame at barely over 220 at 6'7," he has deceiving physical strength and won't be muscled around just because he is lanky. Plus, it bears repeating—that right hand brings down buildings. Banking on an opponent being able to walk through many of those could be a fool's folly. Ask his last opponent Szpilka, who was doing pretty well until a right hand nearly left him for dead in the ninth round of their January bout. Szpilka went down as if he had been shot.
The 36-year old Povetkin has been around the block in a long and accomplished career. A distinguished amateur career culminated in Olympic gold in 2004. In 2011, he won the WBA belt with a decision over Ruslan Chagaev, defending it 4 times before losing to Wladimir Klitschko by decision in 2013. It was his only career loss and he has since bounced back with four wins over ranking heavyweights—all by knockout.
People tend to overlook the morose Povetkin. First of all, he has perhaps the dullest overall vibe of any heavyweight titleholder in history. He is literally devoid of charisma. And his style is similarly dull; with very few of his fights being anything you would ever go back and watch again. But this isn't a popularity contest. Povetkin stands in direct contrast with Wilder, being that he is experienced in every nuance of the sport. He has that gold medal amateur pedigree, in addition to greater exposure to quality heavyweights at the pro level. Povetkin only lost to the best big man of the era. He is maybe older and lacks the one-shot power that Wilder has, but he can work well in the ring, while boxing and slugging. In a lot of ways, the ex-champ is a far more versatile fighter than Wilder.
So what do you like better—the erratic but potentially explosive sports car or the ultra-dependable army jeep? The site of this fight was a bold move by the Wilder camp. And I don't think this is the type of fight where judging snafus will be coming into play. It's still a tough road assignment for Wilder, though he has Olympic experience in Beijing and has fought in Mexico several times, as well as Puerto Rico as a pro.
I like Povetkin in this fight. Granted, the power of Wilder threatens to throw any prediction against him into the toilet, but the overall better fighting package is Povetkin. Offensively and defensively, he is the more consistent and capable boxer. He has more experience, is fighting in his home country, and is actually an underdog with a lot of people perhaps hypnotized by the power of Wilder. I'm going with Povetkin.
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